Illinois Elections 2010: GOP Wave: “The Tide May Have Ebbed,” Expert, Polls Say

(Chicago, IL) – October 4, 2010. The GOP wave is losing force. That’s the conclusions coming from even recent Republican-tilting Wall Street Journal and Rasmussen polls.

Charlie Cook, the immensely respected political analyst and author of the Cook Report, wrote on Saturday, October 2:

A certain ebb and flow marks every campaign year. In 2010, as everyone knows, most of the flow has been in the Republican Party’s direction. But if a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll is correct, the tide may have ebbed a bit.

The survey shows the two parties still tied at 44 percent on the generic congressional ballot test among all registered voters, just as they were knotted at 43 percent in late August. The more interesting result is that the Republicans’ advantage among likely voters has dropped from 9 points in August …

And the GOP-cheering Rasmussen Reports is now grudgingly reporting the same results that other more independent polling firms, such as Gallup, having been reporting for a couple weeks now:

Republican candidates now hold a three-point lead over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, October 3, 2010. This is the smallest gap between parties in roughly a year.

Forty-five percent (45%) of respondents say they would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate, while 42% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent. This is the first time during 2010 that the GOP edge has fallen below five points.

Here in Illinois, the fading GOP force is also being showcased by the revival of Governor Pat Quinn’s campaign against GOP rival Bill Brady. A Chicago Tribune poll in early September had Brady leading Quinn 37 percent to 32 percent. Now, Quinn leads Brady 39%-38%.

And a new poll today shows Quinn with a six-point lead over Brady. The Suffolk University poll of 500 registered voters showed Quinn with 43 percent of the vote and Brady with 37 percent. The telephone poll was conducted from Sept. 30-Oct. 3.

The turn in GOP fortunes came immediately after the election of right-wing, Tea Party-backed candidates Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Carl Paladino in New York.

The threat posed by bizarre, over-top-top extremist GOP candidates has stirred earlier demoralized Democratic voters out of their stupor, and are now “coming home” to Democratic candidates.