//
you're reading...
Elections 2010, Governor General 2010

Illinois Elections 2010: Pat Quinn, Bill Brady in Dead Heat; Cohen, Whitney Hurting Brady, New Polls Says

(Chicago, IL) – October 22, 2010. Governor Pat Quinn has shrunk GOP rival Bill Brady’s lead to only one point as the campaign nears its final turn, and he’s being boosted by third party candidates, according to a new poll.

Brady remains steady at 42%, but Quinn has won over the vast majority of previously undecided voters, bringing his support from 35% to 41% in three weeks.  Third-party candidates Scott Lee Cohen, Rich Whitney, and Lex Green are pulling 6%, 3%, and 1%, respectively.

Cohen’s and Green’s presence on the ballot are hurting Brady, as the Republican would beat Quinn in a head-to-head, 49-44. Despite some of their former independent supporters leaving them for Quinn, if those two and Whitney were not in the race, Brady would have a 48-40 lead with independents against just Quinn, versus his 37-40 deficit in the full ballot measure.

“The fact that Pat Quinn has pulled this race into a tie is remarkable given how unpopular he is,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.  “But Bill Brady was a lot better off when voters didn’t know who he was and the more exposure he’s received the closer Pat Quinn has pulled.”

Quinn was down by seven points in PPP’s last poll of the Illinois governor’s race in September, and by nine in August.

The closure, despite the pro-GOP enthusiasm gap increasing from 10 to 17 points, comes largely because undecided Democrats and independents are moving toward the incumbent.  In September, Quinn was suffering from 15% of his party remaining undecided in the race, to only 5% of the unified Republicans.

As expected, almost all of those undecided voters have come home.  Because Brady takes 13% of Democrats to Quinn’s 2% of Republicans, Brady does still have a party-unity edge, but Quinn has also turned a 12-point deficit with independents to a three-point advantage as many of the undecided in that group, and those supporting the minor candidates, have gravitated to Quinn.

PPP surveyed 557 likely Illinois voters from October 14th to 16th.  The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2%.  Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

About David Ormsby

David, a public relations consultant and blogger at The Huffington Post, is an ex-Press Secretary of the Illinois Democratic Party.

Discussion

No comments yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

Gravatar
WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Submit your email address and be among the first to receive our posts by e-mail as soon as they are published. It's free.

David Ormsby, Editor

RSS Gov. Pat Quinn

  • McHenry County Blog | Pat Quinn Tells Truth about Pension ... Cal Skinner
  • Illinois General Assembly, Gov. Pat Quinn Must Reconcile ... Marge Berglind
  • Pat Quinn Criticizes Scott Walker On Jobs The Huffington Post News Editors
  • Will Governor Pat Quinn Sign Illinois Budget on Thursday? « Child ... Marge Berglind
  • Quinn: Lawmakers Must 'Show Some Fortitude' On Pension ... Todd Feurer
  • Governor Pat Quinn Puts His Foot Down On Gambling Expansion ... Mark
  • Senate narrowly backs Quinn on facility closures - Capitol Fax.com Rich Miller
  • Democurmudgeon: Gov. Pat Quinn exposes Scott Walker as a fake ... Democurmudgeon
  • Advocates Seek Illinois Child Welfare Vision from Governor Pat Quinn Marge Berglind
  • Chicago News Bench: No, Really, Pat Quinn Still Sucks More Than ... TM-1000

RSS IL General Assembly

  • General Assembly puts health exchange bill on back burner - Crain's Chicago Business May 10, 2012
  • IL educators react to proposed state budget cuts - WREX-TV May 11, 2012
  • Violence Against Women Act Survives Partisan Fight, Quinn Told Not To Close ... - Patch.com May 9, 2012
  • American Progressive Bag Alliance Urges Illinois General Assembly To Pass ... - MarketWatch (press release) May 1, 2012
  • You Paid For It: IL General Assembly Scholarship Program - FOX2now.com May 7, 2012
  • Our Opinion: Anti-bully bill should get OK - The State Journal-Register May 10, 2012
  • American Progressive Bag Alliance Urges Illinois General Assembly To Pass ... - PR Newswire (press release) May 1, 2012
  • Illinois State University considers 4.4 percent tuition increase - Herald & Review May 10, 2012
  • Asian-Americans to have state caucus - WBEZ May 8, 2012
  • Suburban mayors also urge state to pass pension reform - Chicago Sun-Times May 10, 2012

RSS The Capitol Fax Blog

  • Question of the day May 10, 2012 Rich Miller
  • Political cover or political payback? May 10, 2012 Rich Miller
  • Illinois Needs Private Sector Jobs Now! Why Labor Leaders Support Senate Bill 1849 May 10, 2012 Advertising Department
  • Senate narrowly backs Quinn on facility closures - Chamber backs Quinn pension reforms May 10, 2012 Rich Miller
  • House approves bill to effectively end free employee health insurance premiums May 10, 2012 Rich Miller
  • *** UPDATED x2 - VIDEO *** Smith hearing resumes today (LIVE Coverage and Video) May 10, 2012 Rich Miller
  • *** UPDATED x2 *** Not a big deal at all, but it’s probably time to delegate a bit more May 10, 2012 Rich Miller
  • Morning Shorts May 10, 2012 Owen Irwin
  • *** LIVE SESSION COVERAGE *** May 10, 2012 Rich Miller
  • Protected: SUBSCRIBERS ONLY - COWL review, supplement to today’s edition and a Statehouse roundup May 10, 2012 Rich Miller
Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 135 other followers

Powered by WordPress.com